PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSIS
The purpose of this article is to use the 4 factors analysis methodology for having a better understand of the strengths and the weakness of each EuroLeague team.
DEFINITION OF 4 FACTORS:
4 Factors are the box score derived metrics that correlate most closely with winning basketball games. These factors also identify a team’s strategic strengths and weaknesses. 4 factors can be applied to both a team’s offense and defense, hence it gives us eight factors.” (Definition by Nbastuffer)
4 FACTORS VARIABLES:
The 4 factors include different aspects of the game and are definded as follows:
- Shooting efficiency TS%= true shooting percentage
- Ball management TOV%=turnover percentage
- Offensive Rebounding efficiency ORB%= offensive rebounds percentage
- Ability to get to the free-throw line FTar= free throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA)
4 FACTORS WEIGHTS:
Dean Oliver, the pioneer of the 4 factors analysis, assigned different weights to each factor for highlighting their relative importances. Shooting efficiency is the most important factor (weight = 0.4), followed by ball management (0.25), offensive rebounding efficiency (0.20), and the ability to get to free throw line (0.15) .
4 FACTORS GRAPHICAL RAPRESENTATION:
In this article we look at EuroLeague teams’ offensive and defensive 4 factors supported by radial charts.
In green we have the Offensive 4 factors while in red the Defensive ones. It is straightforward that for good teams the surface of the chart covered by the green polygon should be as big as possible, while the surface of the red polygon should be as small as possible. If this is the case, we expect that the opponent's 4 factors are worse than the team's 4 factors. In order to compare the single factors, each statistic is analyzed in percentile terms.
INTERPRETATION OF PERCENTILE RANK:
For better undestanding the offensive percentiles, take a look at those examples:
- team X is in the 99th percentile for TS% = only 1% of euroleague team shoot better than team X.
- team X is in the 60th percentile for TOV% = 40% of euroleague teams commits few tournovers than team X.
For the defensive 4 factors the interpretation is the opposite, so the percentiles in which each team is located should be as small as possible.
4 FACTORS DATASET:
For this article, we consider the team stats registered in the first eleven rounds of EuroLeague 2021/22
The leading team in the standings is also the best team in terms of shooting efficiency, while its opponents are only in the 8th percentile for TS%. It means that Barca excels in the most important factor on both sides of game.
Real Madrid is excelent in the ability to go to the free throw line and in shooting efficiency. When they miss shots, they are also in the 86th percentile for ORB% and that assures extra possessions. Their only problem is the turnovers (6th percentile). Defense is solid as proven by the red area which is truly small.
Solid team, they rarely lose the ball in offense side of the game. The problem in defense is that they allow too many free throws to their opponents.
Winning team, concrete in all the statistical categories on offense and defense, although they are forcing the opponents to few TOV.
Same comment as Zenit, except for the fact that they should grab more defensive rebounds for limiting the offensive ones of their opponents.
Nothing to highlight here: the green surface is wider than the red surface proving that this year they are a winning team.
Every unics' game is a rollercoaster; they trust on their backcourt talent to be on fire. The green area is small because, as we said, they are discontinuous on offense, however the red area is tiny proving that their defense works well (best defense of the competition with 104.1 pts allowed per 100 possessions). This is the reason why they are a playoff contender so far.
The French team is efficient in shooting (86th percentile) but they struggle in all the remaining three offense factors. On Defense they are on the average level in everything.
Surprisingly Cska is the second worst defense in terms of defensive rating (with 117.1 allowed per 100 possessions). Their struggle on defense isreflected by their opponent TS% (their opponents are in the 94th percentile in TS%) but also by their opponents free throw attempt rate (86th percentile).
Offense is balanced and is not the reason why they are not placed yet in their usual standing, at the top of the standings
After a slow start the reigning champions are finding their rhythm.
Their offense is growing game after game (2nd best shooting team in TS% behind Barca) as well as their defense.
Offensive factors are not bad, except for shooting (19th percentile) as well as defense. The red area is small, proving that their opponents struggle against them
Offense is good, the problems are related to the opponents shooting and the free throw attempt rate.
Defense is often a bunker and this is why they won some games. Instead, the offense is bad because of they lack talent. In fact shooting and going to the free throw line are problemematic here.
Even if their biggest point of emphasis should be to improve how they manage possessions, Zvezda is currently the worst team in TOV% of the competition.
Offense is very negative except for ORB%.
On defense they let their opponents to grab too many offensive rebounds and they don’t force many turnovers.
Fener is one of the most disappointing teams of the season so far.
Offense is bad in all of 4 factors, in fact they have the second worst offensive rating of the EL.
Opponent TS% is what is destroying Alba, in fact their opponents are in the 94th percentile of TS%.
They have the same issue as CSKA, but if the Russians have the firepower to overcome defensive struggle on offense the Germans haven’t.
When the red area is way bigger than the green area in all 4 factors it means that a team is bad overall, and this is what the greens are so far.
AUTHOR: Tommaso Del Prete
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